A study on evaluation of the Post covid-19 pulmonary fibrosis and its predictive factors

Abstract

Aim: the aim of this study to evaluate the Post covid-19 pulmonary fibrosis and its predective factors. Methods: This cross sectional study was done in the department of Pulmonary Medicine after ethical permission, patients with average or severe covid 19 pneumonia were included in this study. The covid infection was confirmed by RTPCR on nasopharyngeal swab samples collected from the patients with symptoms of fever cough and sputum discharge. Chest CT was also done for all the patients. Results: Logistic regression results of the parameter related with post covid 19 lungs fibrosis were. Severe disease was related with high risk of pulmonary fibrosis at follow-up (OR 3.01, 95% CI 1.51–4.99). Also, patients who had consolidation in their initial CT scan were at a bigger risk of post-COVID-19 lung fibrosis (OR 3.52, 95% CI 1.55–8.12). Moreover, patients with pulmonary fibrosis had a higher CSS than those without (OR 1.21, 95% CI 1.12–1.21). The median number of CSS was 19 (interquartile range: 13–22), and we used it as a threshold for the relevant study. CSS ≥ 19 could predict post-COVID-19 lung fibrosis in patients 2.22 (1.26–4.02). In multivariable analysis, consolidation (OR 2.91, 95% CI 1.21–6.82, p = 0.016) and severe disease (OR 2.42, 95% CI 1.31– 4.49, p = 0.006) were related with expand risk of fibrotic abnormalities, with AUC = 60% and AUC = 64%, respectively.14% patients had sever fibrosis and 86% patients average fibrosis present in this study. In term of severity there is no significant differences were found at the 3 months observations. Conclusion: we concluded that 50% of patients had post covid 19 lungs fibrosis, patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia were at a bigger risk of pulmonary fibrosis.